Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística

In January 2025, national industrial production showed no change compared to December 2024, in the seasonally adjusted series, interrupting three consecutive months of negative rates, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 1.2%. In comparison with January 2024, the industry grew 1.4%, registering the eighth consecutive positive result in this type of comparison.

The cumulative index for the last twelve months increased by 2.9%, showing a positive rate, but a slowdown in growth compared to the results of previous months.

In the zero change (0.0%) in industrial activity between December 2024 and January 2025, a widespread profile of positive rates was observed, reaching three of the four broad economic categories and 18 of the 25 industrial sectors surveyed. Among the activities, the most important positive influences were recorded by machinery and equipment (6.9%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (3.0%), with the former eliminating the 2.1% decline seen in December 2024, when it interrupted two consecutive months of expansion in production, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 4.6%; and the second returning to growth after recording a loss of 13.2% in the last two months of 2024. Other relevant positive contributions to the total industry came from rubber and plastic products (3.7%), leather goods, travel goods and footwear (9.3%), pharmaceutical products (4.8%), miscellaneous products (10.0%), electrical machinery, equipment and materials (4.3%), furniture (6.8%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (5.0%) and food products (0.4%).

On the other hand, among the six activities that showed a reduction in production, mining nd quarrying industries (-2.4%) had the main impact in January 2025 and interrupted two consecutive months of growth in production, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 0.5%. It is also worth highlighting the negative contributions recorded by the coke, petroleum products and biofuels sectors (-1.1%), pulp, paper and paper products (-3.2%) and wearing apparel and accessories manufacturing (-4.7%).

Among the broad economic categories, still in comparison with the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, capital goods (4.5%) and durable consumer goods (4.4%) showed the sharpest positive results in January 2025 and interrupted two consecutive months of decline in production, a period in which they accumulated losses of 4.1% and 4.3%, respectively. The semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods producing sector (3.1%) also showed growth in that month, after accumulating a 5.5% drop in the last three months of 2024. On the other hand, the intermediate goods segment, by falling 1.4%, showed the only negative rate in January 2025 and eliminated the 0.5% advance seen in the previous month.

Quarterly moving average changes by -0.3% in the quarter ending in January

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the total industry showed a negative change of 0.3% in the quarter ended in January 2025 compared to the level of the previous month, after also recording a loss in December 2024 (-0.4%). Among the broad economic categories, in relation to the movement of this index on margin, intermediate goods (-0.5%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-0.5%) recorded negative rates in January 2025, with the first interrupting the upward trend that began in May 2024; and the second marking the fifth consecutive month of decline, a period in which it accumulated a reduction of 4.3%. The durable consumer goods sector recorded no change (0.0%) this month, after recording 0.1% in December, -0.2% in November and 0.0% in October 2024. On the other hand, the capital goods segment (0.1%) recorded the only positive result in January 2025, after showing a 0.9% drop in December 2024, when it interrupted three consecutive months of growth, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 2.3%.

Compared to January 2024, the industry grew by 1.4%

Compared to the same month of the previous year, the industrial sector recorded an expansion of 1.4% in January 2025, with positive results in three of the four broad economic categories, 17 of the 25 sectors, 56 of the 80 groups and 58.8% of the 789 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that January 2025 (22 days) had the same number of working days as the same month in the previous year (22).

Among the activities, the main positive influences on the industry total were recorded by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (13.4%), machinery and equipment (14.1%) and electrical machinery, equipment and materials (14.5%), driven, to a large extent, by the increased production of the items cars, auto parts, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for the transportation of goods, trailers and semi-trailers and trucks, in the first; wet Christmas trees for pipelines, wall, window or transportable air-conditioning units (including those of the “split system” type), loaders-transporters, agricultural tractors, machinery or equipment for the agricultural sector, pressure-reducing safety expansion valves, motor graders and centrifugal pumps, in the second; and electric batteries or accumulators for motor vehicles, refrigerators or freezers for domestic use, alternating or direct current electric motors, fans for domestic use, kitchen stoves for domestic use, household electrical appliances, wires, cables and electrical conductors, electrical or electronic static converters and washing machines or dryers for domestic use, in the third. Other important positive contributions were noted by the sectors of pharmaceuticals (11.9%), textiles (17.5%), basic metals (4.1%), fabricated metal products (6.6%), chemical products (2.4%), rubber and plastic products (3.8%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (7.7%), non-metallic mineral products (4.2%), miscellaneous products (10.3%) and furniture (9.1%).

On the other hand, in comparison with January 2024, among the eight activities that showed a reduction in production, mining and quarrying industries (-5.2%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-3.8%) exerted the greatest influences on the formation of the industry average, pressured mainly by the lower production of iron ore and crude petroleum oils, in the former; and diesel fuel and fuel oils, in the latter. It is also worth highlighting the negative impacts recorded by the beverage (-5.1%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-3.1%) sectors.

Among the broad economic categories, still in comparison with the same month of the previous year, durable consumer goods (16.6%) and capital goods (8.2%) recorded, in January 2025, the sharpest positive rates among the broad economic categories. The intermediate goods producing sector (0.3%) also showed growth in production in that month, but showed a lower increase than that seen in the industry average (1.4%). On the other hand, the semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods segment (-0.1%) recorded the only negative result in January 2025.

The durable consumer goods producing sector, growing 16.6% in January 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year, recorded the eighth consecutive positive rate. In that month, the sector was driven, to a large extent, by the increased production of cars (17.7%). It is also worth highlighting the advances recorded by “white goods” (17.9%) and “brown goods” (1.6%) household appliances, motorcycles (16.5%) and by the groups of other household appliances (34.4%) and furniture (11.4%).

The production of capital goods showed an expansion of 8.2% in January 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year, the tenth consecutive positive rate in this type of comparison. In the formation of this month's index, the segment was influenced mainly by the advances observed in the groups of capital goods for industrial purposes (10.2%) and for transportation equipment (6.2%), driven, to a large extent, by the greater production of serial (6.2%) and non-serial (56.3%) capital goods, in the first group; and of tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for the transportation of goods, trailers and semi-trailers and trucks, in the second. The other positive results were recorded by the groups of agricultural capital goods (16.9%), for construction (22.8%) and for miscellaneous use (6.1%). On the other hand, the capital goods subsector for electricity (-1.5%) showed the only negative rate in the monthly index for January 2025.

Also in comparison with the same month of the previous year, the intermediate goods segment showed a positive change of 0.3% in January 2025, the eighth consecutive positive rate in this type of comparison, but the lowest in this sequence. This month's result was mainly explained by the advances in products associated with the activities of machinery and equipment (18.7%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (8.0%), textiles (20.9%), basic metals (4.1%), fabricated metal products (7.4%), chemical products (4.0%), non-metallic mineral products (4.2%), rubber and plastic products (4.1%) and food products (2.0%), while negative pressures were recorded by mining and quarrying industries (-5.2%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-6.4%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-2.7%). Also in this economic category, it is worth mentioning the positive results recorded by the groups of typical inputs for civil construction (5.5%), which marked the tenth consecutive positive rate in this type of comparison; and packaging (4.2%), which showed the sixteenth consecutive month of growth in production.

The semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods sector showed a negative change of 0.1% in the monthly index for January 2025, marking the third consecutive month of decline in production, but with the least intense decline in this sequence. The negative performance in this month was mainly explained by the decline observed in the group of food and beverages prepared for domestic consumption (-1.2%), largely pressured by the lower production of concentrated orange juice, beers and draft beer, ice cream and popsicles, refined soybean oil, chocolates and chocolate bars, refined sugar from sugarcane, powdered preparations for making beverages and sterilized/UHT/Long Life milk.

It is also worth mentioning the negative results recorded by the groups of basic food and beverages for domestic consumption (-31.9%) and semi-durable goods (-0.6%), influenced mainly by the decline in the production of fillets and other fresh, chilled or frozen fish meats and frozen fish, in the first; and cell phones, women's shirts, blouses and similar items (of cotton or not), women's footwear made of synthetic material, men's long pants, ready-made textile articles, children's apparel and accessories (of cotton or not), adult clothing (knitted or not), shirts, blouses and similar items for professional use (of cotton or not), Bermuda shorts, dungarees, shorts and similar items (knitted or not), miscellaneous wooden articles, mattresses, men's footwear made of synthetic material and dresses (of cotton or not), in the second. On the other hand, the fuel (3.4%) and non-durable (1.9%) groups recorded positive impacts in that month, driven mainly by the higher production of motor gasoline, in the first; and of medicines, insecticides for domestic or industrial use, beauty or prepared makeup products and perfumery, hygiene and cosmetic products, in the second.