Inflation preview
Food and transportation put pressure and IPCA-15 reaches 0.64% in March
March 27, 2025 09h00 AM | Last Updated: March 27, 2025 02h59 PM
The inflation preview was 0.64% in March, 0.59 percentage points (pp) below February, when it changed 1.23%. The result was influenced mainly by the Food and beverages groups, with an increase of 1.09% and an impact of 0.24 pp on the overall index, and Transportation, which rose 0.92% and exerted an influence of 0.19 pp. The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) was released today (27) by the IBGE.
The cumulative index over 12 months was 5.26%, while the IPCA-E, which is the IPCA-15 accumulated quarterly, was 1.99% for the period from January to March. In March 2024, the IPCA-15 had registered an increase of 0.36%.
All nine groups of products and services surveyed recorded positive changes in March, with the Food and beverages group standing out, with the largest change (1.09%) and impact (0.24 pp). Food at home accelerated from 0.63% in February to 1.25% in March. This result was attributable to the increases in hen eggs (19.44%), tomatoes (12.57%), ground coffee (8.53%) and fruits (1.96%).
Food away from home (0.66%) also accelerated in relation to February (0.56%), due to the increase in meals (0.43% in February to 0.62% in March). Snacks (0.68%) slowed down in relation to the previous month (0.77%).
In addition to Food and beverages, the Transportation group (0.92% and 0.19 pp) also had a strong influence on the overall index. Together, the two groups account for about 2/3 of March's result.
The highlight came from fuels (1.88%), with increases in the prices of diesel fuel (2.77%), ethanol (2.17%), gasoline (1.83% and the subitem with the greatest impact in the month, with 0.10 pp) and vehicle gas (0.08%). The train subitem showed an increase of 1.90% due to the 7.04% rise in fares in Rio de Janeiro (4.25%), starting on February 2.
The Housing group slowed from 4.34% in February – when it had been impacted by the end of discounts on electricity bills related to the Itaipu bonus – to 0.37% in March. This month, the result for residential electricity (0.43%) includes a 1.37% adjustment in one of the concessionaires in Rio de Janeiro (-0.12%), effective March 15, with the decrease recorded due to the reduction in the PIS/COFINS rate.
In the result for piped gas (-0.51%), the following tariff adjustments were incorporated as of February 1: in Rio de Janeiro (-0.92%), an average reduction of 1.55%; and in Curitiba (-1.79%), a reduction of 3.01%.
The other groups recorded the following results: Personal expenses, change of 0.81% and impact of 0.08 pp.; Health and personal care, 0.35% and 0.05 pp.; Communication, 0.32% and 0.01 pp.; Wearing apparel, 0.28% and 0.01 pp.; Education, 0.07% and 0.00 pp.; and Household goods, 0.03% and 0.00 pp.
All areas increased, with the highest rate in Curitiba
Regionally, all areas increased in March. The highest change was recorded in Curitiba (1.12%), due to the increases in gasoline (7.06%) and ethanol (6.16%). The lowest result occurred in Fortaleza (0.34%), which saw a drop in the prices of residential electricity (-1.69%) and gasoline (-0.90%).
More about the survey
To calculate the IPCA-15, the methodology used is the same as that of the IPCA, the difference being in the period in which the prices were collected and the geographic scope. Prices were collected from February 13 to March 17 (reference) and compared with those in effect from January 15 to February 12 (base).
The indicator refers to families with incomes of 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and the city of Goiânia. See the full results on Sidra. The next release of the IPCA-15, for April, will be on the 25th of next month, and the IPCA-E, for the second quarter of 2025, will be on June 26.
