Inflation in the country rate was 0.24% higher in June, a slight decrease from May (0.26%). The monthly result was mainly influenced by residential electricity, which, with the red tariff flag level 1 in effect, registered a 2.96% increase in the month, being the sub-item with the greatest individual impact on the index (0.12 percentage points). Cumulative inflation in the year is 2.99% and, in the last 12 months, 5.35%. The data are from the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), released today (10) by the IBGE. 

“With a 6.93% increase in the first half of the year, residential electricity has weighed heavily on the budget of households, registering the biggest individual positive impact (0.27 percentage points) on the cumulative result for 2025. This change is the highest for a first semester of the year since 2018, when it was 8.02%," highlights Fernando Gonçalves, IPCA manager. He recalls the path of this subitem in 2025: "At the beginning of the year, with the Itaipu bonus, there was a decline in January, a reversal in February, and then a green flag came. Last month, the yellow flag came into effect, and now the red flag starts."

In addition to the change in the tariff flag, adjustments were also recorded in June: 7.36% in Belo Horizonte (8.57%), in effect since May 28; 14.19% in one of the Porto Alegre concessionaires (4.41%) in efect since June 19; 1.97% in Curitiba (3.28%) since June 24th and a 2.16% drop in tariffs from one of the concessionaires in Rio de Janeiro (1.29%) starting June 17th.

Housing (0.99%) was also influenced by the increase in water and sewage bills (0.59%). This group contributed 0.15 percentage points to the overall index in the month. 

On the other hand, Food and Beverages recorded its first decline (-0.18%) in 9 months, contributing -0.04 percentage points to the overall rate. The group was influenced by food at home, which fell from 0.02% in May to -0.43% in June, with drops in chicken eggs (-6.58%), rice (-3.23%), and fruits (-2.22%).  Among the increases, tomatoes (3.25%) stood out.

Food away from home, however, slowed to 0.46% in June, compared to 0.58%. The snack sub-item went from 0.51% in May to 0.58% in June, and the meal sub-item, in turn, went from 0.64% in May to 0.41% in June.

The decline in the Food and Beverage group is reflected in the dissemination index for June, that is, the percentage of subitems that had a positive result, which fell from 60% in May to 54% in June. Among food products, the index fell from 60% to 46%, and among non-food products, the 60% rate remained. "It was the lowest dissemination index since July 2024 (47%), when Food products also showed a reduction in its rate (-1.00%)," notes the manager. "If we removed food products from the IPCA calculation, inflation for the month would be 0.36%. And if we removed electricity, it would be 0.13%," he adds.

Transportation also accounted for a significant positive contribution in the month (0.05 percentage points), increasing 0.27% after a 0.37% drop in May. Despite the drop in fuel prices (-0.42%), changes in ride-sharing apps (13.77%) and car repair (1.03%) drove the increase.

"In the previous month, airfare prices were on a downward trend, as were fuel prices, which contributed to the negative rate. This month, airfare prices rose 0.80%, and ride-sharing services pushed the rate higher, even with the drop in fuel prices," the manager explains. 

In Apparel (0.75%), which contributed 0.04 percentage points in June, the increases in men's clothing (1.03%), footwear and accessories (0.92%), and women's clothing (0.44%) stood out. 

The other changes and impacts on the June IPCA were: Health and personal care (0.07% and 0.01 p. p.); Personal expenses (0.23% and 0.02 p. p.); Communication (0.11% and 0.01 p. p.); Education (0.00% and 0.00 p. p.); and Household articles (0.08% and 0.00 percentage points).

In the special aggregate of services, the IPCA accelerated from 0.18% in May to 0.40% in June, and the aggregate of monitored prices, i.e., government-controlled prices, decelerated from 0.70% to 0.60%. 

Fernando explains that, regarding the services aggregate, the negative change in airfare in May contributed to the deceleration of the rate that month. Now, the increase in ride-sharing apps also pushed the index up, as did food away from home, which was positive and weighed heavily on household budgets.

"Among the monitored prices, which decelerated in June, electricity continues to have an impact, but less in the last month. Water and sewage rates also declined (from 0.77% to 0.59%), and fuels once again showed a negative change, with gasoline registering -0.34%. All of this contributed to a smaller change in the monitored prices," he concludes.  

Regarding regional indices, the biggest change (0.64%) occurred in Rio Branco due to cinema, theater, and concerts (77.22%), due to the end of the half-price promotion, and residential electricity (3.99%). The smallest change was found in Campo Grande (-0.08%) due to the fall o ffruits (-5.15%) and gasoline (-1.38%).  

INPC tem alta de 0,23% em junho  

The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) rose 0.23% in June. The cumulative index in the year is 3.08%, and in the last 12 months, it is 5.18%, down from 5.20% in the previous 12 months. In June 2024, the rate was 0.25%. 

Food prices fell from 0.26% in May to -0.19% in June. The change in non-food prices fell from 0.38% in May to 0.37% in June.

Regarding regional indices, the biggest change (0.55%) occurred in Belo Horizonte, driven by residential electricity (8.54%) and gasoline (1.56%). The smallest change occurred in Porto Alegre (-0.10%) due to the decline in gasoline (-2.56%) and personal hygiene products (-1.79%).

More about the surveys

The IPCA refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages, whereas the INPC encompasses households with monthly income of 1 to 5 minimum wages, living in the metropolitan areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Vitória, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, besides the Federal District and of the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju. Access the data on Sidra. The next IPCA result, relative to July, will be released on August 12.