In January 2026,  industrial production increased 1.8% from December 2025, in the seasonally adjusted series, with positive results in seven of the fifteen areas surveyed.

The main advances were found in Pará (8.6%), São Paulo (3.5%), Minas Gerais (3.2%) and Bahia (3.0%). Rio Grande do Sul (-4.5%), Espírito Santo (-4.3%) and Ceará (-2.5%) recorded the main drops.

The quarterly moving average was -0.1%, with negative results in 11 of the 15 areas surveyed. Goiás (-3.9%), Amazonas (-2.4%), Ceará (-2.2%), Santa Catarina (-2.1%), Bahia (-2.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.9%) and Espírito Santo (-1.8%) recorded the min increases. On the other hand, Mato Grosso (1.6%) had the biggest increase in January 2026.

From January 2025, in the seasonally adjusted series, industry changed by 0.2% in January 2026, with positive results in eight of the 18 areas surveyed. The main increases were in Pernambuco (27.7%) and Espírito Santo (14.5%). Rio Grande do Norte (-24.9%) and Bahia (-10.3%) recorded the main decreases.

As for the cumulative indexes in 12 months, the industrial sector advanced 0.5%, with positive rates in eight of the 18 areas surveyed.

Short-term Indicators of Industry
Regional Results - January 2026

Seven of the fifteen areas surveyed showed positive results in January from December, in the seasonally adjusted series. Pará (8.6%) had the most pronounced increase, interrupting four consecutive months of negative rates, a period in which it had cumulative drop of 13.2%. São Paulo (3.5%), Minas Gerais (3.2%), Bahia (3.0%), Northeast Region (2.0%), and Amazonas (1.9%) also registered advances above the national average (1.8%), while Paraná (1.5%) completed the set of areas with positive indexes in January 2026.

On the other hand, Rio Grande do Sul (-4.5%) and Espírito Santo (-4.3%) had the biggest declines this month, with both marking the second consecutive month of production decrease, a period when they had cumulative losses of 5.7% and 10.0%, respectively. Ceará (-2.5%), Pernambuco (-2.0%), Santa Catarina (-1.7%), Goiás (-1.6%), Mato Grosso (-1.1%), and Rio de Janeiro (-0.1%) also showed negative results in the first month of 2026.

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quartely moving average index for the industry overall showed a negative change of 0.1% in the quarter ending in January 2026 from the previous month, continuing the downward trend that began in October 2025.

Eleven of the 15 areas surveyed had negative results this month. The main declines were recorded by Goiás (-3.9%), Amazonas (-2.4%), Ceará (-2.2%), Santa Catarina (-2.1%), Bahia (-2.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.9%), and Espírito Santo (-1.8%). On the other hand, Mato Grosso (1.6%) showed the biggest increase in January 2026.

From January 2025, the industrial sector showed a positive change of 0.2% in January 2026, with eight of the eighteen areas experiencing production expansion. It's worth noting that January 2026 had one less business day (21) than the same month of the previous year (22).

Pernambuco (27.7%) and Espírito Santo (14.5%) had the most significant increases this month. In Pernambuco, the result was driven by the performance of coke, petroleum products and biofuels; machinery, equipment and electrical materials; basic metals; food products and chemical products. In Espírito Santo, the increase was influenced by the mining and quarrying and basic metal industries.

Mato Grosso do Sul (8.7%), Maranhão (6.2%), Rio de Janeiro (5.6%), Mato Grosso (5.2%), Minas Gerais (2.7%), and Pará (0.5%) completed the group of areas with production increase in the monthly index for January 2026. Paraná, with a zero change (0.0%) this month, repeated the production level recorded in January 2025.

On the other hand, Rio Grande do Norte (-24.9%) and Bahia (-10.3%) recorded the most intense declines in January 2026. In Rio Grande do Norte, the result was driven by the activities of coke, petroleum products and biofuels. In Bahia,  by the activities of coke, petroleum products and biofuels, and machinery, equipment and electric materials.

Ceará (-7.5%), Amazonas (-6.8%), Santa Catarina (-6.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-6.5%), Goiás (-4.4%), São Paulo (-1.5%), and the Northeast Region (-0.4%) registered the other negative results in the monthly index for the first month of 2026.

In a comparison of the result from the last quarter of 2025 with the monthly index for January 2026, both comparisons against the same periods of the previous year, eight of the eighteen areas surveyed showed increased dynamism, thus following the movement observed in the national total, which went from -0.7% to 0.2%.

In regional terms, Pernambuco (from 1.8% to 27.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (from -12.9% to 8.7%), Pará (from -9.4% to 0.5%), Maranhão (from -2.9% to 6.2%), and Mato Grosso (from -3.9% to 5.2%) had the most significant gains between the two periods, while Rio Grande do Norte (from -7.5% to -24.9%), Espírito Santo (from 24.4% to 14.5%), Goiás (from 4.4% to -4.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (from 2.1% to -6.5%), Bahia (from -1.8% to -10.3%), Amazonas (from 0.8% to -6.8%), Santa Catarina (from 0.2% to -6.5%), and Ceará (from -1.4% to -7.5%) recorded the main losses.

The cumuative figure for the last 12 months, increasing 0.5% in January 2026, remained positive, but still showed deceleration compared to the results of previous months. In regional terms, eight of the eighteen areas surveyed registered positive rates in January 2026, but ten showed less dynamism compared to the December 2025 figures. Bahia (from 0.3% to -1.0%), Santa Catarina (from 3.2% to 2.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (from 2.3% to 1.2%), Rio Grande do Norte (from -11.8% to -12.5%), Ceará (from -0.7% to -1.3%) and Amazonas (from 0.1% to -0.4%) had the most pronounced losses between December 2025 and January 2026, while Pernambuco (from -3.8% to -0.6%), Espírito Santo (from 11.6% to 13.6%), Maranhão (from -5.3% to -3.9%), Mato Grosso do Sul (from -12.8% to -12.1%) and Rio de Janeiro (from 5.1% to 5.7%) showed the main gains between the two periods.

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