The estimated output, in February 2026,  of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is 344.1 million tonnes, 0.6% (two million tonnes) below the estimate of 2025 (346.1 million tonnes). The rate of February as 0.4% above that of January (an increase of 1.4 million tonnes). The data come from the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), produced by the  IBGE.

The area to be harvested was 82.9 million tonnes, with an increase of 1.6% (or 1.3 million hectares) against 2025. From the January estimate, the area to be harvested increased 0.3% (an increase of 213,075 hectares).

Soybean, rice and corn are the three main crops in this group, which together, represented 92.8% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.5% of the area to be harvested. For soybean, the estimated output was 173.3 million tonnes (4.3% of increase in relation to 2025); for paddy rice the estimate was 11.6 million (8.0% lower) and for corn the estimate was 134.3 million tonnes (5.3% lower). The estimate for corn was 28.9 million in the first  crop (12.2% above 2025) and 105.4 million in the second (9.1% menor). 

For wheat, the output estimate for 2026 in February was 7.7 million tonnes (1.6% of decrease from 2025). The production of upland cottonseed was estimated at 8.8 million tonnes (10.5% lower than last year). The harvest of sorghum was estimated at 4.9 million tonnes (9.5% lower) whereas for beans the figure is 3.0 million (0.2% lower). 

As for the area to be harvest the previous year, in February, increases of 0.8% were estimated for soybeans; 2.4% for corn (increases of 9.5% for corn 1st crop and 0.6% for 2nd crop) and 0.5% of sorghum, with decreases of 5.8% in the area to be harvested with upland cottonseed; 6.3% for paddy rice ; and 2.5% for beans.

Central West leads production in February 2026 with 167.9 million tonnes

Among the Major Regions, the production volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded the following distribution: Central West, 167.9 million tonnes (48.8%); South, 95.2 million tonnes (27.7%); Southeast, 30.5 million tonnes (8.9%), Northeast, 28.9 million tonnes (8.4%) and North, 21.5 million tonnes (6.2%).

As for the production in 2025, the estimated output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded positive changes in the South (10.3%) Northeast (4.2%), and negative ones in the Central West (-6.0%), North (-3.5%) and Southeast (-1.9%). The monthly change increased as expected in the Northeast (2.3%), Southeast (1.1%), Central West (0.3%) and North (0.2%). In the South, the February estimate was 0.1% lower than in January.

In the distribution of production by Federation Units, Mato Grosso leads as the main national producer of grain, with a participation of 30.2% in the national harvest, followed by Paraná (13.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (11.7%), Goiás (10.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.6%) and Minas Gerais (5.5%). Together, these states represent 79.6% of the output estimate in Brazil for 2026.

The main positive changes in output estimates, from January, were found in Bahia (with an increase of 652,211 tonnes), in Goiás (424,068 t), in Minas Gerais (321,243 t), in Paraná (306,400 t), in Rondônia (49,323 t), in Maranhão (6,474 t) and in Ceará (42 t). The negative changes were those of Rio Grande do Sul (-359,430 t), Amapá (-124 t), Rio de Janeiro (-84 t) and Roraima (-65 t).

Crops

From January, there were increases in output estimates of coffea arabica (+5.6% or +140,318 t), sorghum (+5.1% or +238,602 t), 1st crop beans (+2.6% or +25,511 t), 1st corn crop (+0.8% or +240,531 t), soybeans (+0.4% or +718,684 t), coffea canephora (+0.4% or +4,447 t) and 2nd crop corn (+0.2% or +221,757 t).  Decreases were observed in 2nd crop beans (-4.5% or -57,775 t) and sugarcane (-0.9% or -6,581,058 t).

COFFEE BEAN - The Brazilian production, considering both species, arabica and canephora, the estimated production was 3.8 million tonnes (64.1 million 60 kg sacks), an increase of 3.9% from January and 11.5% against the volume produced in 2025, a record in the time series of the survey, comparable since 2002.

For coffea coffee arabica, the estimated production was 2.6 million tonnes (43.9 million sacks), an increase of 5.6% from January. For the 2026 harvest, a natural increase in production is expected due to the characteristics of the species, which tends to a higher yield in even-numbered years. The climate has benefited the crops in the Center-South of the country, and climate problems in the main producing states have, so far, been occasional occurrences.

In February, Minas Gerais reassessed its estimates, raising the average yield by 5.5% and the planted area by 2.6%. From 2025, the average yield increased by 18.4% and the area to be harvested by 5.3%. Favorable prices in recent years encourage producers to expand planting areas, investments, and coffee harvesting. The state is the largest producer of coffea arabica, with 1.9 million tonnes (31.9 million sacks), an increase of 8.2% from January and 24.7% against 2025, being expected to account for 72.6% of the national output of this species.

For coffea canephora, the production estimate was 1.2 million tonnes (20.2 million sacks), an increase of 0.4% from January and a decrease of 3.7% against the 2025 output. The area to be harvested increased by 1.3%, and the average yield fell by 4.9% against last year. Although the weather has favored the crops, the comparative base impacts the change, since coffea canephora production in 2025 hit a record in the IBGE's historical series. However, uncertainties regarding the volume and frequency of rainfall in the first four months of the year still remain.

In February, production estimates in Rondônia increased by 1.4% and in Minas Gerais by 6.8%, due to increase of harvested area (3.7%) and average yield (3.1%). In Rondônia, the estimated production was 182,600 tonnes (3.0 million sacks), representing 15.1% of the total produced in Brazil. In Minas Gerais, production is expected to reach 31.6 thousand tonnes (526 thousand sacks), 7.4% higher than in 2025. The largest producer of conilon, with an estimated 69.4% share of the total, is Espírito Santo, with 841.3 tonnes expected for 2026 (14.0 million sacks).

SUGARCANE –  The output etimate was 700.4 million tonnes, a drop of 0.9% from January. Against 2025, production must be 0.4% smaller. The initial estimates point to higher productivity this year (1.6%), reaching 74,717 kg/ha.

The rainy weather may benefit sugarcane crops. São Paulo, which is responsible for half of the national production, did not reevaluate its estimates in February (352.1 million tonnes). The highest reevaluated figure was that of Goiás, with a drop of  6.7% in production, due to the smaller planted area (-10.1%). Even so, yield in the state must increase 3.8%, with better climate conditions. In the Northeast Region, the biggest changes in monthly production came from Alagoas (-2.7%) – a decrease of 2.5% in plantes area – and in Maranhão (-1.0%), which recorded a drop of 2.6% in productivity.

CANOLA (grain) – The production of canola was estimated at 298.9 thousand tonnes, an increase of 13.0% from January. Rio Grande do Sul is the only Federation Unit producting canola for commercial purposes in Brazil. The IBGE started to calculate canola production estimates in 2026, after a significant increase of production in the last few years, as a replacement for several traditional crops, such as wheat, oat and plant coverage, being consolidated as a strategic winter crop. In the northwestern part of the state, some producers have more than seven years experience in this crop. 

BEAN SEED – The February estimate for the three crops of beans reached 3.0 million tonnes, a drop of 1.1% from January and of 0.2% against 2025. The production must be enough for domestic supply, without the need of imports. Paraná, the main national producer of beans, estimates an output of 688.4 thousand (a share of 22.9%), followed by Minas Gerais with 514.1 thousand tonnes (a share of 17.1%), Goiás with 364.9 thousand tonnes and Mato Grosso with 363.4 thousand tonnes .

The output estimate for the first crop of beans increased 2.6% in February and reached 1.0 million tonnes, a share of 33.3% in the year. Among Major Regions, in February, there was a decrease in the estimate for the first crop in the North (-1.1%) and Central West (-0.7%), which faced a reduction in the area to be harvesed by 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively. The North and South recorded increases of 4.7% and 3.6% in the estimated production. In the South, which holds 30.3% of the estimated 1st crop production, there was an increase of 3.3% in the estimated average yield. In the South Region there was no significant change.

The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, which corresponds to 41.2% of the total. In February, the estimate fell 4.5%, a result of the smaller production expected in the South Region (-9.3%), which holds 45.4% of the second crop. Paraná, the main proucer in Brazil, estimates an output of 496.1 thousand tonnes, 40% of the harvest. Low prices have demotivated producers in the state. 

As for the third crop of beans, the February estimate was 766.7 thousand tonnes, same volume as in January. From 2025, a decrease of 0.8% in output is expected due to reduction in area (-0.3%) and in average yield (-0.6%). The biggest producers in this 3rd crop are Goiás (258.5 thousand tonnes), Minas Gerais (177.2 thousand tonnes), Mato Grosso (176.3 thousand tonnes) and São Paulo (122 thousand tonnes).

CORN (grain) - The national output estimate was 134.3 million tonnes in February, with an increase of 0.3% from January. The South Region second main national producer, recorded an increase in the production of 377 thousand tonnes  (1.3%), which incluenced national data, whereas the Central West Region, main producer in Brazil, kept its estimate relatively stable.

First corn crop is estimated to produce 28.9 million tonnes, a 0.8% increase compared to the previous month and 12.2% higher than in 2025. Production in Rio Grande do Sul (22.5% of the national production) is expected to reach 6.5 million tonnes (22.5% higher than in 2025). In the second biggest national producer, Minas Gerais (17.4% of production), the estimate remained stable at 5.0 million tonnes (13.8% above 2025).

The second crop estimate was 105.4 million tonnes, 9.1% lower than in 2025. Compared to January, there was a 0.2% increase in production and a 0.1% increase in area and average yield. The Northeast, Southeast, and Central-West regions remained stable compared to the previous month, while the North and South regions showed growth of 1.4% and 0.6%, respectively. Compared to the previous harvest, all regions showed significant declines, associated with drops in productivity.

The biggest producer of second-crop corn, Mato Grosso (47.4% of the national production), estimated 50.0 million tonnes o foutput, a decrease of 8.5% compared to 2025; with a 9.9% reduction in average yield (6,732 kg/ha). Paraná (a share of 16.6%), the second biggest national producer, maintained a 0.8% drop in its annual estimate, despite a 1.6% increase in area, totaling 17.5 million tonnes and an average yield of 6,125 kg/ha (-2.3%). Goiás (a share of 12.7%) is the third main national producer of second-crop corn. Monthly production increased by 0.2%, reaching 13.4 million tonnes, associated with a 1.4% increase in average yield (6,171 kg/ha).

SOJA (em grão) – The estimated production reached a new record in the historical series for 2026, totaling 173.3 million tonnes, 0.4% above January and 4.3% higher than that produced in 2025. The cultivated area is expected to grow by 0.8% and reach 48.2 million hectares, while the average yield, at 3,600 kg/ha, must grow by 3.5% compared to the previous year.

The projections indicate a record harvest, driven by favorable weather conditions in most of the producing states and by the recovery of the Rio Grande do Sul harvest. Mato Grosso, the main national producer, estimated a harvest of 48.5 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.3% compared to 2025, with the planted area showing a growth of 1.9% and the average yield falling by 5.0%. Goiás is expected to produce 19.5 million tonnes, a 3.8% decrease from 2025, with a 0.9% increase in area and a 4.7% decrease in average yield. 

Mato Grosso do Sul expects a production of 15.0 million tonnes, a 14.0% increase compared to the volume harvested in 2025, with growth of 3.2% in the area to be harvested and 10.5% in average yield. Paraná, with 22.3 million tonnes, must reach the second largest harvested volume in the country, with a 4.3% increase against the volume harvested in 2025, with a 0.2% decline in planted area and a 4.5% increase in average yield. Rio Grande do Sul estimated a production of 20.8 million tonnes, a 2.1% decline compared to the previous month, due to a 2.0% drop in average yield. In 2025, production in Rio Grande do Sul was hampered by the weather, notably by the lack of rain during the crop cycle, which makes the 2026 harvest a recovery.

SORGHUM (grain) – The estimated sorghum production for February was 4.9 million tonnes, a 5.1% increase over January, with a 3.4% larger planted area and a 1.6% higher average yield. Against the same period last year, a 9.5% decrease in production is expected. The area planted with sorghum must be around 1.5 million hectares, or 1.9% of the total area with cereals, legumes, and oilseeds, representing 1.4% of the production of this group. The average yield must reach 3,162 kg/ha, indicating a 1.6% increase from January 2026.

 In a month-on-month comparison with January 2026, changes in output were driven by the Southeast region with a 12.4% increase, mainly in Minas Gerais, the second most important state. Minas Gerais' production is expected to reach 1.4 million tonnes, a 17.8% increase in the month. São Paulo, with a 10.4% share of the national total, kept its February estimates at 508,000 tonnes. In the South, Rio Grande do Sul continues its recovery, with an expected increase of 5.2%. In the Central-West, responsible for more than half of the national production, output is expected to increase by 1.1%, with this change coming from Goiás, the main sorghum producer, with approximately 1.7 million tonnes. The production increase must be 1.6%, practically due to increased area, since the average yield is expected to fall marginally. The North and Northeast showed little or no variation in their estimates for the month. Expectations remain regarding the climate and the dominance of El Niño, predicted for 2026, which may affect soybean and corn crops differently in producing regions, also impacting sorghum planting decisions.

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